Parts of Hudson Valley, New York Most At Risk Of Real Estate Crash

Parts of the Hudson Valley are more at risk of a housing market crash than most of the nation, experts say.

It's not a shocking statement to say the real estate market in the Hudson Valley has been booming since the start of the COVID pandemic. However, some top analysts think that may soon change.

In 2020, more people moved to the Hudson Valley than anywhere else. Hudson and Kingston had the biggest change in net in-migration among U.S. cities with a population of over 50,000 people.

As many longtime Hudson Valley residents know, many from New York City headed north and bought homes in the Hudson Valley during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Home sales skyrocketed in the Hudson Valley in 2020. The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors reported home sales in the Hudson Valley continued to skyrocket during the second quarter of 2021 compared to the second quarter of 2020.

Every county in the market saw strong gains both in the number of sales as well as increased median sales prices, according to the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.

"Low mortgage rates, combined with low supply and high demand for housing, lit a furious fire under home prices. Most homes are barely lasting a week on the market, most are gone within a few days," Keller Williams real estate agent Phil Szumlaski told Hudson Valley Post. "I had a 1,100 sq ft ranch in New Windsor last week have 24 showings in five days with 10 offers, most over the asking price."

In 2021 home sales in the Hudson Valley surpassed what was a "historic" 2020.

It appears the bubble may finally burst in the Hudson Valley. Or at least one county.

ATTOM, curator of the nation's premier property database, named the 50 counties most at risk of a housing market crash.

ATTOM named eight at-risk counties near New York City. Seven were in New Jersey and one in the Hudson Valley.

"The U.S. housing market keeps powering on despite of the Coronavirus pandemic that's still raging across the country. Indeed, home prices keep rising in part because of the crisis," said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM. "No immediate warning signs hang over any one part of the country, but pockets are more vulnerable to the market taking a turn for the worse."

ATTOM thinks Rockland County is the most vulnerable county in New York State.

Attom says all 50 counties are in danger of a downturn based on three warning signs: housing that is unaffordable for average workers, higher levels of foreclosures and larger portions of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages.

"Major homeownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes consumed more than 30 percent of average local wages in 32 of the 50 counties that were most vulnerable to market problems connected to the virus pandemic in the fourth quarter of 2021. The highest percentages in those markets were in Rockland County, NY," ATTOM states in its press release.