What does the Woolly Bear have to say about winter 2025-2026?

Fall Finally Arrives in New York

Parts of New York are hitting peak foliage meaning that it's truly fall.

New Yorker's were a bit worried as warm, summer-like weather and dry conditions plagued most of the state for the first half of fall.

Well, fall finally decided to show up in the Hudson Valley. We've been holding steady in the 60s and the leaves are finally starting to change a bit.

With the colder weather, bugs are starting to move out for the season which has most of us celebrating.

However, one bug has been spotted and said bug is bringing its weather prediction.

Woolly Bear Folklore: Can a Bug Predict the Winter Forecast?

Have you heard of the Woolly Bear? It usually pops up across the Northeast around autumn.

It's a brown and black caterpillar that has a mystical skill. For those that are unfamiliar, Woolly Bear folklore states that the amount color on a woolly bear can predict the future winter.

According to the National Weather Service "the amount of black on the woolly bear in autumn varies proportionately with the severity of the coming winter in the locality where the caterpillar is found."

The folklore explains

The longer the woolly bear's black bands, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be.  Similarly, the wider the middle brown band is associated with a milder upcoming winter.

Additionally, if the head end of the wooly bear is dark "the beginning of winter will be severe" if the tail end is darker, the end of winter will be cold.

Woolly Bear Spotted in New York, Winter Predictions Roll In

Former Upstate, New York Meteorologist Steve Caporizzo  shared a photo on social media of a Woolly Bear that he came across recently.

If the woolly bear folklore is true, Caporizzo explains "Harsh start to the winter and a milder second half or depending on interpretation….a moderate winter."

Snow Predictions for 2025 in New York

Even before the weather started changing and we were still in the thick of summer, forecasters started giving their predictions for the winter season.

Back in August 2025, The Farmer's Almanac released their winter predictions writing "Grab your warmest coat and boots." For the Northeast they expect "dramatic swings and widespread winter weather." The Farmers Almanac predicts we're in for a "wild ride."

Read More: New York Winter Could Be Brutal, Experts Predict Chaos

Other research has broken down when the first snowfall likely happens in each county across New York. When will your town start seeing snow fall? Find out below!

We've also found some data that broke down which counties across New York get more snow than most of America. It has us dreading the winter if we're being honest: