The chances of the "first significant winter storm of the 21-22 season" have increased.

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On Monday, Hudson Valley Weather believed there was a 30 percent chance of the Hudson Valley seeing more than six inches of snow Thursday night into Friday.

They also reported there was a 30 percent chance of 6 inches or less of snow and a 40 percent chance of the storm missing the region.

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Doing the math, on Monday Hudson Valley Weather thought there was a 60 percent chance the region would see its "first significant winter storm of the 21-22 season" and a 40 percent chance of the storm missing the Hudson Valley.

Hudson Valley Weather now believes there's a 75 percent chance of snow and a 25 percent chance of a complete miss.

Irina Igumnova
Irina Igumnova
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Hudson Valley Weather now believes there's a 75 percent chance of snow and a 25 percent chance of a complete miss.

"Previously, the guidance seemed split between a significant snowstorm and a complete miss. On Monday the models met in the middle, with a solution that looks more likely to bring snow to the Hudson Valley, but in the form of a weaker storm," Hudson Valley Weather wrote Tuesday morning.

As of this writing, Hudson Valley Weather states there is a 50 percent chance of one to six inches of snow and a 25 percent chance of over six inches of snow Thursday night into Friday.

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Hudson Valley Weather states there is a 50 percent chance of one to six inches of snow and a 25 percent chance of over six inches of snow

"So as we start Tuesday, the more likely solution is a light to moderate snow event... perhaps a 3 to 6 inch event. But as the graphic shows, we are far from being able to eliminate the other possibilities," Hudson Valley Weather added. "We're now entering the period (48 to 96 hours) where we should begin to get a better handle on the situation."

Joanna Glab
Joanna Glab
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The more likely solution is a light to moderate snow event... perhaps a 3 to 6 inch event.

Monday morning, The Weather Channel predicted 3 to 5 of snow for Dutchess, Orange Putnam, Ulster, and Rockland counties. As of Tuesday, The Weather Channel is now predicting 2 to 6 inches of snow for northern parts of the region and 2 to 4 inches of snow for the rest.

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