Hudson Valley Bracing For Nor’Easter As New Forecast Emerges

The forecast for the first big snowstorm of the season just shifted, and it depends on where you live.

The storm forecast for later this week is getting clearer.

Forecast Update: Valleys Mostly Wet While Catskills Could Get First Real Snow

William Thomas Cain, Getty Images

Hudson Valley Weather updated its forecast for the pending Nor'Easter. They say it looks like a rain event for the valleys and a snow event for the mountains. Confidence is growing in a long stretch of unsettled weather. It starts Thursday and lasts into the weekend.

Earlier this week, Hudson Valley Weather said there was a 20 percent chance of significant snow in the region.

Rain First On Thursday

Mario Tama, Getty Images

Rain arrives Thursday from the southwest. Most of the Hudson Valley will see just rain.

For all the news that the Hudson Valley is sharing, make sure to follow Hudson Valley Post on Facebook, and download the Hudson Valley Post Mobile App

The highest elevations of the Catskills could see some wet snow mix in. That is most likely above about 1,500 feet. Any early accumulation should be light.

Snow Builds In The Mountains

snow covered mountain during daytime

A new coastal low is expected to develop Thursday night into Friday. That should keep moisture flowing into the region. The Hudson Valley should see mostly rain through Friday.

Colder air gradually moves into the higher terrain, and rain should change to wet snow there.

Hudson Valley Weather says current guidance shows a 60 to 70 percent chance of 2 inches or more in parts of the higher terrain. Some peaks could see several inches.

A second coastal low could develop Friday into Saturday and keep precipitation going. Wet snow may mix in Friday night into Saturday morning.

Hudson Valley Weather says snow falling does not mean snow sticking. Temperatures near the valley floor will be marginal, and the ground is still mild. Meaningful accumulation on paved surfaces looks unlikely.

Rainfall totals are expected to be between three-quarters of an inch and an inch and a half. Conditions should improve Sunday.

Why It Is Still Tricky

Handout, Getty Images

The Euro and GFS models agree on the big picture. They still differ on where the coastal lows form and how much precipitation wraps back into the region. Small shifts could change how quickly rain turns to snow and how low the snow line drops.

Hudson Valley Weather summed it up simply. For the valleys, mostly wet. For the mountains, increasingly white.

Hudson Valley Post will keep updating the forecast.